降水预测对流域水资源开发利用与管理决策具有重要意义。利用勐海站1958~2016年降水量资料,结合马尔可夫链对西双版纳流沙河该流域降水进行短期预测。结果表明,2015年和2016年验证期预测丰枯状态与实际完全吻合,马尔可夫链在该流域降水预测中具有较高的精度;2017~2020年预测期降水丰枯状态分别为平水、偏枯、平水、偏枯,该时段降水量总体偏少。 Precipitation prediction is of great significance to the development, utilization and management of water resources in river basins. Using the precipitation data of Menghai hydrological station from 1958 to 2016, the short-term prediction of the precipitation of the Liusha River was conducted based on the Markov chain. The results show that the predicted abundance in 2015 and 2016 is completely consistent with the actual situation; the Markov chain has high accuracy in the precipitation forecast of the basin. The precipitation in the forecast period of 2017 to 2020 is normal water year, partial dry year, normal water year and partial dry year, the total precipitation during this period is less than usual.
马尔可夫链,状态预测,降水,流沙河流域, Markov Chain State Prediction Precipitation Liusha River Basin基于马尔可夫链的流沙河流域降水预测
胡学祥,黄启胜,舒坤海. 基于马尔可夫链的流沙河流域降水预测Precipitation Prediction in the Liusha River Basin Based on Markov Chain[J]. 水资源研究, 2018, 07(04): 398-403. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2018.74044
参考文献References潘刚, 芦冰, 邹兵, 等. 马尔可夫链在水库主汛期降雨状态预测中的应用[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2011, 17(6): 33-36.
PAN Gang, LU Bing, ZOU Bing, et al. Application of markov chain in the prediction of rainfall in the main flood season. Water Conservancy Technology and Economy, 2011, 17(6): 33-36. (in Chinese)鲁帆, 蒋云钟, 严登华. 基于多重转移概率的长期降水量预报模型研究[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2010, 8(3): 76-78.
LU Fan, JIANG Yunzhong and YAN Denghua. Study on long-term precipitation prediction model based on multiple transfer probability. South-to-North Water Diversion and Water Conservancy Technology, 2010, 8(3): 76-78. (in Chinese)马占青, 徐明仙, 俞卫阳, 等. 年降水量统计马尔可夫预测模型及其应用[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(6): 1033-1041.
MA Zhanqing, XU Mingxian, YU Weiyang, et al. Annual precipitation statistics of Markov prediction model and its application. Journal of Natural Resources, 2010, 25(6): 1033-1041. (in Chinese)钱家忠, 朱学愚, 吴剑锋. 地下水资源评价中降水量的时间序列——马尔可夫模型[J], 地理科学, 2001, 21(4): 350-353.
QIAN Jiazhong, ZHU Xueyu and WU Jianfeng. Time series of precipitation in groundwater resource evaluation—Markov model. Geoscience, 2001, 21(4): 350-353. (in Chinese)夏乐天. 梅雨强度的指数权马尔可夫链预测[J]. 水利学报, 2005, 36(8): 988-993.
XIA Letian. The index of the strength of meiyu intensity in Markov chain prediction. Journal of Hydrology, 2005, 36(8): 988-993. (in Chinese)夏乐天, 朱元甡, 沈永梅. 加权马尔可夫链在降水状况预测中的应用[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2006, 26(6): 20-23, 27.
XIA Letian, ZHU Yuanshen and SHEN Yongmei. Weighted Markov chain in the condition of rainfall forecast application. Water Conservancy and Hydropower Science and Technology Progress, 2006, 26(6): 20-23, 27. (in Chinese)孙才志, 张戈, 林学钰. 加权马尔可夫链在降水丰枯状况预测中的应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2003(4): 100-105.
SUN Caizhi, ZHANG Ge and LIN Xueyu. Application of weighted Markov chain in precipitation forecast. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 2003(4): 100-105. (in Chinese)王涛, 钱会, 李培月. 加权马尔可夫链在银川地区降雨量预测中的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2010, 8(1): 78-81.
WANG Tao, QIAN Hui and LI Peiyue. Application of weighted Markov chain to rainfall prediction in Yinchuan area. South to North Water Diversion and Water Conservancy Science and Technology, 2010, 8(1): 78-81. (in Chinese)张蕊, 夏乐天. 灰色马尔可夫链模型在降雨预测中的应用[J]. 重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2012, 26(10): 103-106.
ZHANG Rui, XIA Letian. Grey Markov chain model applied to rainfall prediction. Journal of Chongqing University of Technology (Natural Science Edition), 2012, 26(10): 103-106. (in Chinese)沈永梅, 夏乐天. 叠加马尔可夫链模型在雨季强度指数预测中的应用[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 34(4): 477-480.
SHEN Yongmei, XIA Letian. Application of superposition Markov chain model in prediction of intensity index of rainy season. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Science Edition), 2006, 34(4): 477-480. (in Chinese)刘新有, 彭海英, 吴捷, 等. 复权马尔可夫链及其在怒江水沙预测中的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2017, 15(6): 26-32.
LIU Xinyou, PENG Haiying, WU Jie, et al. Application of complex Markov chain and its application in the prediction of water and sediment in Nu River. South to North Water Transfer and Water Conservancy Technology, 2017, 15(6): 26-32. (in Chinese)贺娟, 王晓松, 王彩云. 加权马尔可夫链模型在密云水库入库流量中的应用[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2015, 13(4): 618-621.
HE Juan, WANG Xiaosong and WANG Caiyun. Application of weighted Markov chain model in the reservoir flow of Miyun Reservoir. South to North Water Transfer and Water Conservancy Technology, 2015, 13(4): 618-621. (in Chinese)王亚雄, 黄淑娴, 刘祖发, 等. 变化环境下北江下游年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测[J]. 生态环境学报, 2011, 20(4): 754-760.
WANG Yaxiong, HUANG Shuxian, LIU Zufa, et al. Weighted Markov chain prediction of annual runoff in the lower reaches of the North River under the changing environment. Ecological Environment Journal, 2011, 20(4): 754-760. (in Chinese)赵琳琳, 夏乐天. 模糊加权马尔可夫链模型及其应用[J]. 江西农业学报, 2007, 19(1): 151-153.
ZHAO Linlin, XIA Letian. Fuzzy weighted Markov chain model and its application. Jiangxi Acta Agri Sinica, 2007, 19(1): 151-153. (in Chinese)冯耀龙, 韩文秀. 权马尔可夫链在河流丰枯状况预测中的应用[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 1999(10): 89-98.
FENG Yaolong, HAN Wenxiu. Application of the weighted Markov chain to the prediction of the flood and drought situation of rivers. System Engineering Theory and Practice, 1999(10): 89-98. (in Chinese)赵雪花, 黄强, 吴建华. 基于灰色马尔可夫链的径流序列模式挖掘[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2008, 41(1): 1-4.
ZHAO Xuehua, HUANG Qiang and WU Jianhua. Runoff series pattern mining based on Grey Markov chain. Journal of Wuhan University (Engineering Edition), 2008, 41(1): 1-4. (in Chinese)赵玲萍, 王俊, 张凤娥, 等. 基于灰色残差–马尔可夫藕合模型的农业需水量预测研究[J]. 节水灌溉, 2010(11): 4-6, 10.
ZHAO Lingping, WANG Jun, ZHANG Fenge, et al. Prediction of agricultural water demand based on Grey residual Markov coupling model. Water Saving Irrigation, 2010(11): 4-6, 10. (in Chinese)马建琴, 许龙宾, 师琨. 改进型灰色马尔科夫模型在径流预测中的应用[J]. 华北水利水电学院学报, 2012, 33(2): 39-42.
MA Jianqin, XU Longbin and SHI Kun. Application of improved grey Markov model in runoff prediction. Journal of North China Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Institute, 2012, 33(2): 39-42. (in Chinese)