系统动力学擅于分析复杂系统内部因果反馈关系和仿真模拟系统动态行为发展趋势的特征,使其在水文水资源研究领域的应用愈加普遍。归纳梳理系统动力学法在水文水资源领域的实际应用状况,以勾勒出其方法与模型应用的轮廓。首先简要介绍系统动力学方法的特点及发展历程,然后评述了系统动力学方法在水文水资源领域的研究与应用进展,以及应用特征和适用性;最后从扩大研究范围和尺度、注重方法与学科交叉研究以及融合智慧水利理念等角度,展望了系统动力学方法在水科学领域的发展趋势。 The system dynamics is used for analyzing the internal causal feedback relationship of complex systems and simulating the development trend of dynamic behavior, which is more and more popular in the field of hydrology and water resources research. The practical application of carding system dynamics in the field of hydrology and water resources is reviewed in order to outline the method and model application. This paper first briefly introduces the characteristics and developments process of the system dynamics method, and then reviews the research and application progress of the system dynamics method in the field of hydrology and water resources, as well as the application characteristics and wide applicability; finally, from the perspective of expanding the scope and scale of research, focusing on the intersection of methods and disciplines, and integrating the concept of smart water conservancy, the development trend of system dynamics in the field of water science prospects.
系统动力学,水文模型,水资源,研究进展,评述, System Dynamics Hydrological Model Research Progress Review系统动力学在水文水资源应用研究的进展与展望
SD方法始创于1956年,是由美国麻省理工学院的教授Forrester提出的,该方法的发展历史主要经历了三个阶段:诞生初期、发展成熟期、广泛应用阶段 [1] 。20世纪50~60年代,方法诞生初期主要应用于工业企业的管理,又被称为“工业动力学”。N. J. Mass [6] 、W. W. Schroeder [7] 、L. E. Alfeld [8] 等学者扩展了城市动力学的研究,随后该方法的应用遍布了各个领域,也被改称为“系统动力学”。20世纪70~80年代是SD高速发展成熟的阶段,这一阶段的标志性的成果就是系统动力学世界模型与美国国家模型的研究,从宏观层面分析了世界的能源衰竭问题,揭示国家经济长波的内在机制,同时在项目管理领域的应用取得很大的进展,如K. G. Cooper [9] 构建SD模型量化分析了美国军事造船工程成本超额的原因。这些研究成果使系统动力学得到世界广泛的关注。而在20世纪70年代末,SD方法被引入中国。王其藩、杨通谊、许庆瑞、陶在朴等专家学者是先驱与积极倡导者,在80年代已得到广泛传播,并成立了多个SD研究协会推动了该方法在中国的发展,应用领域涉及人类社会与自然科学的众多领域 [2] 。20世纪90年代至今,SD方法在宏观、项目管理、学习组织型、物流与供应链、公司战略等众多领域内得到广泛的应用与传播。同时,SD方法在水文水资源领域应用广泛,当前,SD方法在水文水资源领域的应用研究在宏观层面可划分为水文和水资源两个方面的研究,但是在具体的研究过程中也互有交叉。在水文学方面,SD多应用于研究区域的水文水资源特征,模拟其水文水资源过程,分析驱动型因素对水文循环的响应作用等等;而在水资源方面,SD应用研究范围更广,可以归纳为水量、水环境、水生态三个方面研究。目前基于这三个方面主要的研究热点有水资源承载力、水资源供需平衡、水资源优化配置、水环境承载力、水污染控制、水生态承载力和生态需水预测等研究 [10] 。
吉久伟,方红远,纪静怡. 系统动力学在水文水资源应用研究的进展与展望Application of System Dynamics in Hydrology and Water Resources, Review and Prospect[J]. 水资源研究, 2019, 08(05): 523-533. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2019.85060
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