﻿ 基于解释结构模型的风电项目投资风险分析 The Investment Risk Analysis of the Wind Power Project Based on the Interpretative Structure Model

Sustainable Energy
Vol.05 No.01(2015), Article ID:14998,8 pages
10.12677/SE.2015.51001

The Investment Risk Analysis of the Wind Power Project Based on the Interpretative Structure Model

Moyu Wang, Jiaojiao Zhang, Xiaoliu Shen

Department of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing

Email: zjjnewday123@126.com

Received: Mar. 17th, 2015; accepted: Mar. 21st, 2015; published: Mar. 27th, 2015

Copyright © 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc.

ABSTRACT

The paper uses the theory of whole life cycle analysis of wind power project investment risk, uses the interpretative structural model to analyze the risk factors of the wind power in China, constructs a hierarchical graph of risk factors, describes the hierarchy of wind power project investment risk and the relationship between risk factors, determines the source of risk, process risk and terminal risk of wind power project investment risk in China and puts forward the corresponding risk control methods.

Keywords:The Whole Life Cycle, Wind Power Project, Interpretative Structural Model, Risk Analysis

Email: zjjnewday123@126.com

2. 基于全寿命周期的风能发电风险指标体系

2.1. 全寿命周期

2.2. 风电项目投资风险评价指标体系

Figure 1. The process of whole life cycle risk management

2.2.1. 决策阶段

1) 政策风险

2) 气候不确定性风险

2.2.2. 设计阶段

1) 技术工艺环保风险

2) 地理位置选择风险

2.2.3. 施工阶段

1) 融资风险

2) 工期拖延风险

3) 建设安全风险

4) 建设质量风险

2.2.4. 运营维护阶段

1) 调度风险

2) 效益不确定性风险

3) 上网电价风险

4) 电网并网风险

2.2.5. 报废回收阶段

1) 使用寿命风险

2) 报废处理风险

3. 基于解释结构模型的风电项目投资风险分析

3.1. 解释结构模型

3.1.1. 解释结构模型概述

1973年，解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling, ISM)由美国的J.华费尔教授提出，并应用于分析复杂的社会经济系统。ISM通过因素之间的关系分析将原本复杂无序的系统划分为若干个子系统，并借助有向边线将子系统之间、子系统内部元素之间的因果关系反映出来，从而形成一个径向关系明显、系统层次明确的系统结构网络。

3.1.2. 解释结构模型要素

1) 有向连接图

2) 邻接矩阵

Figure 2. Wind power investment risk index system

Figure 3. Directed graph based on the interpretation structure model

3) 可达矩阵

(1)

(2)

3.2. 风能发电投资风险结构模型

3.2.1. 意识模型

Table 1. The influence of the risk index

3.2.2. 结构模型

1) 区域划分

(3)

Figure 4. The reachability matrix after partition

Figure 5. Wind power project investment risk factors of class structure

4. 总结

The Investment Risk Analysis of the Wind Power Project Based on the Interpretative Structure Model. 可持续能源,01,1-9. doi: 10.12677/SE.2015.51001

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