﻿ 云南地区生产总值影响因素和回归分析 Influencing Factors and Regres-sion Analysis of GDP in Yunnan Province

Statistics and Application
Vol. 08  No. 04 ( 2019 ), Article ID: 31573 , 8 pages
10.12677/SA.2019.84066

Influencing Factors and Regression Analysis of GDP in Yunnan Province

Xinxin Hu

School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics University, Kunming Yunnan

Received: Jun. 27th, 2019; accepted: Jul. 13th, 2019; published: Aug. 2nd, 2019

ABSTRACT

Based on the statistical yearbook of GDP from 2007 to 2016 in Yunnan province and the related data, using linear regression method, this paper sets up the fitting model to describe the relationship between GDP and related variables in Yunnan province. The heteroscedasticity test, sequence autocorrelation test and abnormal point test for the model are also carried out. The results show that this model can be used to predict the gross domestic product of Yunnan province.

Keywords:GDP, Influencing Factors, Linear Regression Model

1. 引言

2. 数据来源与变量选择

2.1. 数据来源

2.2. 变量选择

3. 建立模型

3.1. 模型估计 [2]

3.2. 用普通最小二乘法(OLS)估计模型 [3]

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Figure 1. The scatter plot between the variable Xi ( $i=0,\cdots ,7$ ) and Y((1)~(7))

$Y={\beta }_{0}+{\beta }_{1}{X}_{1}+{\beta }_{2}{X}_{2}+{\beta }_{3}{X}_{3}+{\beta }_{4}{X}_{4}+{\beta }_{5}{X}_{5}+{\beta }_{6}{X}_{6}+{\beta }_{7}{X}_{7}+\mu$

Table 1. The result

$hY=-592.094-1.004{X}_{1}-0.038{X}_{2}-1.586{X}_{3}+1.440{X}_{4}+2.272{X}_{5}+4.253{X}_{6}+16.519{X}_{7}+\mu$

Table 2. System resulting data of standard experiment

Figure 2. The result of stepwise

Table 3. The model selection

Table 4. The result of refit

3.3. 异方差性检验

a. 残差图分析法 [9]

Figure 3. The residual plot

b. 斯皮尔曼(Spearman)检验 [10]

4. 结论

Influencing Factors and Regres-sion Analysis of GDP in Yunnan Province[J]. 统计学与应用, 2019, 08(04): 581-588. https://doi.org/10.12677/SA.2019.84066

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