﻿ 我国老龄化人口的影响因素分析 Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Aging Population in China

Aging Research
Vol.03 No.02(2016), Article ID:18387,8 pages
10.12677/AR.2016.32002

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Aging Population in China

Enlai Li

School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming Yunnan

Received: Aug. 5th, 2016; accepted: Aug. 21st, 2016; published: Aug. 24th, 2016

ABSTRACT

With the continuous progress of human civilization, human health and quality of life continue to improve, so that the average human life expectancy is growing, which makes the human aging problem is becoming more and more serious, especially the aging problem in China. Many scholars put forward that the birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate are the main factors influencing aging. Based on the three main factors, this paper adds some other factors to build a multiple regression analysis to make a quantitative analysis of the reasons of aging population. In this paper, on the one hand the quantitative analysis of the relationship between the aging population trend, birth rates and per capita GDP is conducted. On the other hand, it also demonstrates the necessity and rationality of the “two-child” policy released earlier this year. Finally, we give some reasonable suggestions to deal with the problem of aging.

Keywords:Aging Population, Quantitative Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, Suggestion

1. 引言

2. 数据分析

2.1. 指标选取

1) 人均GDP：人均GDP是衡量一个国家人民生活水平高低的重要指标之一，人均GDP越高，则人均的生活水平就越高，从而使得人均寿命增长。导致我国老龄化人口加剧。

2) 人口密度：人口密度越大，会导致人们的生活资源就越少，从而导致我国人口出生率的下降，加剧我国人口老龄化程度。

3) 普通本专科毕业人数：普通本专科毕业人数越多，这说明我国人民的文化水平越高，人民生活水平就越高，从而使得我国人均寿命增长，导致我国老龄化人口加剧。

4) 男女性别比例：许多研究表明，女性的人均寿命比男性的人均寿命长，男女性别比例的失调，在一定的程度上会影响我国老龄化人口。

5) 居民消费水平：居民消费水平的提高，使得我国人民生活水平的提高，从而有利于人均寿命增长，导致我国老龄化人口加剧。

6) 卫生总费用：随着我国对卫生总费用大力投入，我国医疗水平在不断的提高，使得我国人均寿命得到延长，从而会导致我国老龄化人口加剧。

2.2. 数据来源及说明

2.3. 数据分析初步分析

3. 模型构建

3.1. 多元线性回归

Table 1. Explanatory note for each variable

Figure 1. The scatter plot matrix of the aging of the population and the various variables

3.2. 变量选择

4. 实验结果与模型评价

4.1. 实验结果

4.2. 模型评价

Table 2. Fitting results of model 1

Table 3. Fitting results of model 2

Table 4. Fitting results of model 3

5. 结论与建议

5.1. 结论

5.2. 建议

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Aging Population in China[J]. 老龄化研究, 2016, 03(02): 11-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/AR.2016.32002

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