Climate Change Research Letters
Vol. 08  No. 04 ( 2019 ), Article ID: 31234 , 9 pages
10.12677/CCRL.2019.84056

Long-Term Correlation and Evolution Law of Temperature in Eastern China in the Past 100 Years

Qiguang Wang1, Aixia Feng2, Yingying Hu3, Wenhai Wang4

1China Meteorological Administration Training Center, Beijing

2National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing

3Chinese Academy of Sciences University, Beijing

4Wuyi Second Yellow River Bureau, Jiaozuo Yellow River Bureau, Jiaozuo Henan

Received: Jun. 27th, 2019; accepted: Jul. 5th, 2019; published: Jul. 12th, 2019

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we study the 16 stations data set of the “Hundred Years of Uniform Temperatures (V1.0) in the East of China” between 1910.01 and 2015.12 which from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC). The temperature data were analyzed and combined with the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to study the long-range correlation of the 100-year temperature series, revealing the memory characteristics and interdecadal evolution of the climate system in the region. Firstly, the paper analyzes and compares the conventional statistic characteristics of 16 centuries-old temperature series in the east, and finds that the trend changes in the temperature series in the past 100 years are generally weakened from northern China to the south. It is caused by the temperature series in the northern region which has steady growth in the past 100 years, but in the South basically it showed a significant warming trend after 1980s. Furthermore, the temperature series scale index of 16 stations in the century is calculated. The results show that the monthly temperature series scale index of each station in eastern China ranges from 0.62 to 0.85, and there are certain long-range correlations. The long-range correlation of the temperature series of stations in the Northeast and middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River is relatively strong, and the long-range correlation in the southern areas is relatively weak. On this basis, the 50-year time window is selected to calculate the temperature series scale index with 10 years as the step size. The study finds that there is a turning point in the long-range correlation of the temperature series of 16 stations in eastern China within 100 years. In the first 70 years (1916 - 1986), the scale index of most stations was relatively stable, but in the 1980s, its long-range correlation was significantly weakened. Until the last 50 years (1976 - 2015), the scale index showed an overall growth trend. The results of this study can provide scientific evidence and support for climate change assessment.

Keywords:Centennial Temperature, Long-Range Correlation, Global Warming

1中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京

2国家气象信息中心，北京

3中国科学院大学，北京

4焦作黄河河务局武陟第二黄河河务局，河南 焦作

Copyright © 2019 by author(s) and Hans Publishers Inc.

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY).

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. 引言

2. 资料和方法

Table 1. The location and time of the century-old station in eastern China

Figure 1. The distribution diagram of 16 site locations

$Y\left(i\right)={\sum }_{i=1}^{N}\left({x}_{i}-\stackrel{¯}{x}\right)$ (1)

${Y}_{s}=Y\left(i\right)-{P}_{v}\left(i\right)$ (2)

${F}^{2}\left(v,s\right)=\frac{1}{s}{\sum }_{i=1}^{s}{Y}_{s}^{2}\left[\left(v-1\right)s+i\right],\left(v=1,2,\cdots ,{N}_{s}\right)$ (3)

$F\left(s\right)=\sqrt{\frac{1}{{N}_{s}}{\sum }_{v=1}^{{N}_{s}}{F}^{2}\left(v,s\right)}$ (4)

$F\left(s\right)=\propto {s}^{\alpha }$ (5)

3. 中国东部百年温度变化规律分析

Table 2. Centennial mean, variance and trend of temperature in stations in eastern China

Figure 2. Annual average temperature of 100 years of temperature at different sites: (a) Hong Kong; (b) Shenyang; (c) Changsha; (d) Xujiahui

4. 中国东部温度长程相关性分析

4.1. 中国东部百年和50年温度序列长程相关性

Figure 3. Long-range correlation of monthly temperature-month series of different sites: (a) Hong Kong; (b) Shenyang; (c) Changsha; (d) Xujiahui

4.2. 中国东部百年温度序列长程相关性

Table 3. 100-year temperature monthly mean sequence long-range correlation scale index of 16 sites

4.3. 50年滑动月平均序列DFA

Figure 4. 100-year temperature monthly average sequence 50-year sliding scale index of 16 sites (sliding interval is 10 years)

Figure 5. 50-year sliding scale index (sliding interval is 10 years) for a hundred-year temperature-average sequence of different regional sites: (a) 3 sites in northeast China; (b) 3 sites in the pearl river delta region

5. 结论和讨论

Long-Term Correlation and Evolution Law of Temperature in Eastern China in the Past 100 Years[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2019, 08(04): 516-524. https://doi.org/10.12677/CCRL.2019.84056

1. 1. 丁一汇, 王会军. 近百年中国气候变化科学问题的新认识[J]. 科学通报, 2016, 61(10): 1029-1041.

2. 2. Cao, L., Zhao, P., Yan, Z., et al. (2013) Instrumental Temperature Series in Eastern and Central China Back to the 19th Century. Journal of Geophysical Re-search: Atmospheres, 118, 8197-8207.

3. 3. 赵宗慈, 王绍武, 罗勇, 江滢. 近百年气候变暖的不确定性分析[J]. 科技导报, 2009, 27(923): 41-48.

4. 4. 封国林, 曹鸿兴. 自忆预报模式中记忆特性的探讨[J]. 应用气象学报, 1998, 9(2): 219-224.

5. 5. Feng, G.L. and Dong, W.J. (2003) Evaluation of the Applicability of a Retrospective Scheme Based on Comparison with Several Difference Schemes. Chinese Physics, 12, 1076-1086. https://doi.org/10.1088/1009-1963/12/10/307

6. 6. 封国林, 侯威, 董文杰. 基于条件熵长江三角洲温度的非线性动力学特征分析[J]. 物理学报, 2006, 55(2): 962-968.

7. 7. 支蓉, 龚志强, 等. 基于幂律尾指数研究中国降水的时空演变特征[J]. 物理学报, 2006, 55(11): 6185-6191.

8. 8. Peng, C.K., Buldyrev, S.V., Havlin, S., Simons, M., et al. (1994) Mosaic Organization of DNA Nucleotides. Physical Review E, 49, 1685-1689. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.49.1685

9. 9. Arneodo, A., Bacry, E., Graves, P.V. and Muzy, J.F. (1995) Characterizing Long-Range Correlations in DNA Sequences from Wavelet Analysis. Physical Review Letters, 74, 3293-3296. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.74.3293

10. 10. Shukla, J. (1998) Predictability in the Midst of Chaos: A Scientific Basis for Climate Forecasting. Science, 282, 728-731. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5389.728

11. 11. Lim, Y.K. and Kim, K.Y. (2007) ENSO Impact on the Space-Time Evolution of the Regional Asian Summer Monsoons. Journal of Climate, 20, 2397-2415. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4120.1

12. 12. 王启光, 支蓉, 张增平. Lorenz系统长程相关性的研究[J]. 物理学报, 2008, 57(8): 5343-5350.

13. 13. 王启光, 侯威, 郑志海, 等. 极端事件再现时间长程相关性与群发性研究[J]. 物理学报, 2010, 59(10): 7491-7497.

14. 14. Kantelhardt, J.W., Bunde, E.K. and Rego, H.A. (2001) Detecting Long-Range Correlations with Detrended Fluctua-tion Analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 295, 441-454. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00144-3

15. 15. 王启光, 侯威, 郑志海, 等. 东亚大气长程相关性[J]. 物理学报, 2009, 58(9): 6640-6650.