﻿ 基于多元回归对中国进出口额的影响因素分析 Analysis of Factors Affecting China’s Import and Export Volume Based on Multiple Regression

Vol.07 No.08(2018), Article ID:26397,8 pages
10.12677/AAM.2018.78115

Analysis of Factors Affecting China’s Import and Export Volume Based on Multiple Regression

Nannan Fan1, Xing Chen2, Yazhen Wang1

1School of Applied Mathematics, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi Xinjiang

2Foundation Institute, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi Xinjiang

Received: Jul. 26th, 2018; accepted: Aug. 7th, 2018; published: Aug. 14th, 2018

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the important influencing factors of import and export volume except policy, and carries out multiple regression, establishes multiple regression model and conducts multi-collinearity test, sequence correlation test and heteroscedasticity test, and the model was tested for economic significance, and finally some improvement measures were proposed according to the research.

Keywords:Total Import and Export Trade, Multiple Linear Regression, Statistical Test

1新疆财经大学，应用数学学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐

2新疆工程学院基础学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐

1. 引言

2. 变量的引入以及数据的采集

3. 实证分析

3.1. 模型的设定及多重共线性检验与修正

Table 1. Augmented correlation matrix

${R}^{2}-\sum _{j=1}^{p}\left({R}^{2}-{R}_{j}^{2}\right)$ ,

Table 2. Eviews regression results

Table 3. The resulting goodness of fit

Table 4. Analysis of X3 regression results

Table 5. Analysis of X3 and X4 regression results

Table 6. Analysis of X3 and X5 regression results

Table 7. Analysis of regression results of three variables

$\stackrel{^}{Y}=-480512.1+0.986315X1-0.822432X2+4.935438X3+533.9595X5$

3.2. 序列自相关性检验

$Y=-327697.1+1.406098X1-1.272941X2+2.705045X3+320.0142X5$

3.3. 序列异方差检验

$Y=-327697.1+1.406098X1-1.272941X2+2.705045X3+320.0142X5$

3.4. 经济意义检验

Table 8. Stepwise regression and final result analysis

Figure 1. First-order autocorrelation plot of residuals

Figure 2. Scatter plot of residuals

Table 9. Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test

Table 10. Analysis of the final regression results

Table 11. Heteroscedasticity test

4. 结论与政策性建议

“国家自然科学基金”，项目编号：1130145。

Analysis of Factors Affecting China’s Import and Export Volume Based on Multiple Regression[J]. 应用数学进展, 2018, 07(08): 979-986. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2018.78115

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