Statistics and Application
Vol. 08  No. 01 ( 2019 ), Article ID: 28472 , 12 pages
10.12677/SA.2019.81007

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Henan Province

—Take the Time Sequence Data from 1978 to 2017

Yangyang Liu

Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou Henan

Received: Dec. 27th, 2018; accepted: Jan. 9th, 2019; published: Jan. 16th, 2019

ABSTRACT

Since the reform and opening up, economic development has been the focus of our work that is closely related to the national economy and people’s livelihood. After decades of development, our province has achieved remarkable economic development results. In recent years, the proposal of the new normal has revealed the current situation of China’s development at this stage and in the future. The party and government are also gradually focusing on changing the development mode and optimizing the industrial structure. This paper mainly studies the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth. First of all, it’s about the structure and economic growth of the industrial structure and the economy. Then the theory of mutual relation between them is discussed. According to the specific situation of Henan province, this paper discusses the achievements and problems of industrial structure and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the two has been empirically tested through the annual data from 1978 to 2017 since the reform and opening up. It shows that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth. Industrial structure optimization can promote economic growth and each industry has different action mechanism to economic growth. Economic growth is counterproductive to industrial structure. In the conclusion, it analyzes the reason that the two can affect each other. Finally, aiming at the influence mechanism and deficiencies reflected by the empirical study, this paper proposes to improve the output value and mechanization level of the primary industry, promote the development of the secondary industry through new forms of industrialization and increase the proportion and quality of the tertiary industry.

Keywords:Industrial Structure, Economic Growth, Empirical Analysis

——以1978~2017年时间序列数据为例

1. 引言

2. 文献综述

2.1. 国外主要观点

2.2. 国内主要观点

3. 河南省经济增长现状

3.1. 经济增长总量变化

Figure 1. The change of the GDP of Henan province from 1978 to 2017

3.2. 经济增长速度变化

Figure 2. Changes of GDP growth rate of Henan province from 1978 to 2017

4. 河南省产业结构演变特点

4.1. 产业结构不断优化

4.1.1. 第一产业比重持续下降

4.1.2. 第二产业占比近年回落

Figure 3. Changes of GDP and added value of various industries in Henan province from 2008 to 2017

Figure 4. Changes of industrial structure in Henan province from 2008 to 2017

4.1.3. 第三产业发展势头强劲

Table 1. Proportion of industrial structure in China and six provinces in central in 2017

4.1.4. 产业结构朝高级化演进

Figure 5. Trend of TS1 and TS2

4.2. 产业结构调整过程中存在的问题

4.2.1. 产业发展整体低于全国平均水平

Figure 6. Contribution ratio of three major industries to GDP of Henan province in 2017

4.2.2. 是第一产业生产效率较低

4.2.3. 是第二产业发展大而不强

4.2.4. 第三产业结构尚不合理

5. 实证分析

5.1. 数据选取和资料查找

5.2. 模型构建

$Y=A+{\alpha }_{1}{X}_{1}+{\alpha }_{2}{X}_{2}+{\alpha }_{3}{X}_{3}$

$LNY=C+{\beta }_{1}LN{X}_{1}+{\beta }_{2}LN{X}_{2}+{\beta }_{3}LN{X}_{3}$

5.4. 协整检验与回归

Table 3. Cointegration test results of each variable

$\begin{array}{l}LNY=1.3459+0.1009LN{X}_{1}+0.5277LN{X}_{2}+0.3258LN{X}_{3}\\ t\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }=\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(14.7534\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(2.1729\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(18.3941\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{ }\left(9.7747\right)\\ P=\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(0.0000\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(0.0365\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\left(0.0000\right)\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{ }\left(0.0000\right)\\ {R}^{2}=0.9998\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }\text{ }F=54943.96\end{array}$

5.5. 格兰杰因果关系检验

Table 4. Granger causality test results

5.6. 结论与对策

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Henan Province—Take the Time Sequence Data from 1978 to 2017[J]. 统计学与应用, 2019, 08(01): 48-59. https://doi.org/10.12677/SA.2019.81007

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