﻿ 云南农村居民消费影响因素分析 Analysis of Effect Factors of Yunnan Rural Residents’ Consumption

Statistical and Application
Vol.04 No.04(2015), Article ID:16631,7 pages
10.12677/SA.2015.44030

Analysis of Effect Factors of Yunnan Rural Residents’ Consumption

Mei Huang1, Deyuan Li2

1School of Management and Accounting Institute of Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming Yunnan

2School of Statistics and Mathematics, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming Yunnan

Received: Dec. 5th, 2015; accepted: Dec. 26th, 2015; published: Dec. 29th, 2015

ABSTRACT

Raising the level of rural residents’ consumption has important strategic significance to promote the development of economy in Yunnan. This paper chooses the relevant data of Yunnan’s rural residents’ consumption between 1991 and 2012, and uses principal component regression method to analyze the factors which influence the rural residents’ consumption. The results show that the average net income of rural residents has significantly positive correlation relationship with the rural residents’ consumption, the rural residents’ consumption is more sensitive to the changes of CPI, as well, the consumption structure of rural residents has significant negative correlation relationship with the rural residents’ consumption.

Keywords:Consumption of Rural Residents, Principal Component Regression, Average Net Income, CPI

1云南民族大学管理学院，云南 昆明

2云南财经大学统计与数学学院，云南 昆明

1. 引言

2. 云南省农村居民消费现状

2.1. 云南省农村居民消费水平较低

2.2. 云南省农村居民人均消费支出增长速度慢

2.3. 云南省农村居民消费结构不尽合理[4]

3. 制约云南省农村居民消费增长的因素[5]

3.1. 收入水平是影响消费水平的直接因素

Table 1. The main structure of rural residents consumption in Yunnan

3.2. 物价变动影响人们的购买力和居民的消费水平

3.3. 传统的消费习惯和模仿性对消费也产生较大影响

4. 云南省农村居民消费因素的计量分析

4.1. 指标的选择与数据来源

4.2. 主成分回归的计量分析

1) 主成分分析

,

,

,

.

Table 2. The rate of variance contribution of principal component

Table 3. The coefficient of principal component

(1)

2) 主成分回归分析

① 模型构建及估计

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

② 主成分回归与OLS回归的比较

Table 4. Comparison of principle components regression models

Table 5. Comparison of principle components regression and OLS regression

(6)

③ 模型整理及解释

(7)

(8)

5. 政策建议

5.1. 提高农村居民收入

5.2. 采取有效措施抑制物价过快上涨

5.3. 优化农村消费供需结构

Analysis of Effect Factors of Yunnan Rural Residents’ Consumption[J]. 统计学与应用, 2015, 04(04): 268-274. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/SA.2015.44030

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