随着城市化的快速发展,极端气候的影响,福州城区内涝频繁,应对内涝风险已经成为城市治理中的难题之一。本文以福州市江北城区为例,利用Mann-Kendall (M-K)以及非参数化Sen方法分析短历时降水规律,借助ArcGIS工具处理分析垫面、河网、管网等致涝因素。认为短历时降雨的增强、不透水地面比例的增高、特殊的地形、闽江潮水位顶托、河道淤堵等是内涝形成的主要原因。针对城市地区小尺度的内涝风险评估,在指标体系评估法和情景模拟法的基础上,提出内涝风险综合评估法,根据福州主城区内涝风险评估结果划分了高、中、低风险区域,并采用“玛利亚”台风涝点对评估结果进行了验证,证明风险评估成果是合理的,对福州城市防洪排涝规划和内涝点的治理具有实用性和适用性。 With the rapid development of urbanization and the impact of extreme climate, the urban waterlogging in Fuzhou is frequent, and coping with the risk of waterlogging has become one of the problems in urban governance. Taking Jiangbei District of Fuzhou City as an example, this paper uses Mann-Kendall (M-K) and non-parametric Sen method to analyze the short-duration precipitation law, and uses ArcGIS tool to process and analyze the waterlogging factors such as cushion, river network and pipeline network. It is considered that the main causes of waterlogging are the increase of short duration rainfall, the high proportion of impervious surface, the special topography, the top support of tidal level in Minjiang River and the siltation of river channel. Aiming at the small-scale waterlogging risk assessment in urban areas, based on the index system assessment method and scenario simulation method, a comprehensive waterlogging risk assessment method is proposed. According to the results of waterlogging risk assessment in the main urban area of Fuzhou, the high, medium and low risk areas are divided. The assessment results are verified by typhoon “Maria” waterlogging point, which proves that the risk assessment results are reasonable. It has practicability and applicability to the flood control and drainage planning of Fuzhou city and the control of waterlogging points.
ArcGIS,城市内涝,内涝成因,风险评估, ArcGIS Urban Waterlogging Causes of Waterlogging Risk Assessment基于GIS的城市内涝成因分析及风险评估 研究——以福州市主城区为例
王文川,陈玉超,康爱卿. 基于GIS的城市内涝成因分析及风险评估研究——以福州市主城区为例Analysis of Causes and Risk Assessment of Urban Waterlogging Based on GIS—Taking the Main City of Fuzhou as an Example[J]. 水资源研究, 2019, 08(03): 224-233. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2019.83027
参考文献References秦大河, 陈振林, 罗勇, 丁一汇, 戴晓苏, 任贾文, 等. 气候变化科学的最新认知[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(2): 63-73.
QIN Dahe, CHEN Zhenlin, LUO Yong, DING Yihui, DAI Xiaosu, REN Jiawen, et al. Recent cognition of climate change science. Progress in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(2): 63-73. (in Chinese)王伟武, 汪琴, 林晖, 龚迪嘉, 张圣武. 中国城市内涝研究综述及展望[J]. 城市问题, 2015(10): 24-28.
WANG Weiwu, WANG Qin, LIN Hui, GONG Dijia and ZHANG Shengwu. Review and prospect of urban inland research in China. Urban Problems, 2015(10): 24-28. (in Chinese)福建省人民政府网. 福建省人民政府关于印发实施城市内涝防治三年行动计划(2016-2018年)的通知[EB/OL]. http://www.fujian.gov.cn/zc/zxwj/szfwj/201604/t20160407_1180072.htm, 2016-04-06.
Fujian Provincial People’s Government Network. Fujian Provincial People’s Government notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for urban infighting prevention and control (2016-2018).
http://www.fujian.gov.cn/zc/zxwj/szfwj/201604/t20160407_1180072.htm, 2016-04-06. (in Chinese)叶斌, 盛代林, 门小瑜. 城市内涝的成因及其对策[J]. 水利经济, 2010, 28(4): 62-65+78.
YE Bin, SHENG Dailin and MEN Xiaoyu. Causes of urban infighting and its countermeasures. Journal of Economics of Water Resources, 2007, 28(4): 62-65+78. (in Chinese)张维. 广州城市内涝成因及防治对策[J]. 广东气象, 2011, 33(3): 49-50+53.
ZHANG Wei. The causes of formation and prevention countermeasures in Guangzhou City. Journal of Guangdong Meteorology, 2011, 33(3): 49-50+53. (in Chinese)BENITO, G., LANG, M., BARRIENDOS, M., et al. Use of systematic, palaeoflood and historical data for the improvement of flood risk estimation, review of scientific methods. Natural Hazard, 2004, 31(3): 623-643. (in Chinese)
<br>https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000024895.48463.eb郭涛. 四川城市水灾的历史特征[J]. 灾害学, 1991, 6(1): 72-79.
GUO Tao. Historical characteristics of urban floods in Sichuan. Disaster Science, 1991, 6(1): 72-79. (in Chinese)RYGEL, L., O’SULLIVAN, D. and YARNAL, B. A method for constructing a social vulnerability index: An application to hurricane storm surges in a developed country. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2006, 11: 741-764.
<br>https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-006-0265-6KA’ZMIERCZAK, A., CAVAN, G. Surface water flooding risk to urban communities: Analysis of vulnerability, hazard and exposure. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2011, 103: 185-197. <br>https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.07.008栾慕, 袁文秀, 刘俊, 等. 基于SWMM-MIKE11耦合模型的桐庐县内涝风险评估[J]. 水资源保护, 2016, 32(2): 57-61.
LUAN Mu, YUAN Wenxiu, LIU Jun, et al. Waterlogging risk assessment in Tonglu County based on SWMM-MIKE11 coupling model. Water Resources Protection, 2016, 32(2): 57-61. (in Chinese)王丹. 基于MIKE模型的西安市曲江新区城市内涝模拟研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 西安: 西安理工大学, 2017.
WANG Dan. A simulation study of urban waterlogging in Qujiang New District of Xi’an City based on MIKE model. Master’s Degree Thesis, Xi’an: Xi’an University of Technology, 2017. (in Chinese)王滢, 周小伟. InfoWorks ICM在山地丘陵城市内涝治理中的应用[J]. 中国给水排水, 2018, 34(19): 118-123.
WANG Ying, ZHOU Xiaowei. Application of InfoWorks ICM in the treatment of earthworms in mountainous and Hilly Cities. Chinese Water Supply and Sewerage, 2018, 34(19): 118-123. (in Chinese)郑颖青, 吴启树, 林笑茹, 陈瑞闪. 近106a来登陆福建台风的统计分析[J]. 台湾海峡, 2006, 25(4): 541-547.
ZHENG Yingqing, WU Qishu, LIN Xiaoru and CHEN Ruixue. Statistical analysis of typhoon landing in Fujian in recent 106 years. Taiwan Strait, 2006, 25(4): 541-547. (in Chinese)王佃来, 刘文萍, 黄心渊. 基于Sen+Mann-Kendall的北京植被变化趋势分析[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2013, 49(5): 13-17.
WANG Dianlai, LIU Wenping and HUANG Xinyuan. Analysis of Beijing vegetation change trend based on Sen+Mann-Kendall. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2013, 49(5): 13-17. (in Chinese)张九香, 王选仓, 侯仰慕, 蔡力. 城市化进展对福州内涝的影响研究[J]. 灾害学, 2018, 33(1): 146-151.
ZHANG Jiuxiang, WANG Xuancang, HOU Yangmu and CAI Li. Study on the influence of urbanization progress on Fuzhou neiyu. Journal of Catastrophology, 2018, 33(1): 146-151. (in Chinese)邵崴, 潘文斌. 城市不透水面与降雨径流关系研究[J]. 亚热带资源与环境学报, 2012, 7(4): 20-27.
SHAO Wei, PAN Wenbin. The relationship between urban impervious surface and rainfall runoff. Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment, 2012, 7(4): 20-27. (in Chinese)朴希桐, 向立云. 下垫面变化对城市内涝的影响[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2014, 24(6): 38-43.
PIAO Xitong, XIANG Liyun. Impact of underlying surface changes on urban waterlogging. Flood Control and Drought Relief in China, 2014, 24(6): 38-43. (in Chinese)张冬冬, 严登华, 王义成, 鲁帆, 刘少华. 城市内涝灾害风险评估及综合应对研究进展[J]. 灾害学, 2014, 29(1): 144-149.
ZHANG Dongdong, YAN Denghua, WANG Yicheng, LU Fan and LIU Shaohua. Research progress on risk assessment and comprehensive response of urban disasters. Journal of Hydrology, 2014, 29(1): 144-149. (in Chinese)福州市规划设计研究院. 福州市排水(雨水)防涝综合规划(江北主城区) [R]. 2015-6.
Fuzhou Institute of Planning and Design. Fuzhou comprehensive drainage (rainwater) and waterlogging control planning (Jiangbei main urban area). 2015-6. (in Chinese)